From the first Global Stocktake to real accountability?
The first-ever Global Stocktake was a cornerstone of COP28, providing a rigorous assessment of where nations stand on their Paris Agreement targets. While the Global Stocktake painted a clearer picture of the collective gaps and progress, it also underscored the urgency of increased climate ambition. COP29 now has the mandate to move from assessment to action. Expectations are high in Baku for a more enforceable framework to ensure that countries not only report their progress but also face consequences for failing to meet emissions targets. Within this framework, COP29 is anticipated to sharpen the focus on updating and strengthening Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), ensuring they are both ambitious and achievable.
Sustainable Development Law on the rise
Compared to COP28, we observe a growing demand by governments worldwide in how to translate sustainability policy into law, in particular on biodiversity and climate protection issues. This doesn't come as a surprise, as the role of law has been recognized as crucial in making the fight against climate change tangible and private sector accountable. Despite the ESG backclash often referred to in media, behind the scenes more and more countries work on the legal framework for climate protection financing and infrastructure.
Climate finance as the heart of COP29
Climate finance will be central to the agenda at COP29 to make finance both accessible and reliable for developing countries. While some progress was made at COP28 with the establishment of new funds, including the Loss and Damage Fund and a USD30 billion initiative to unlock greater investment by 2030, COP29 will need to address the logistical and financial challenges that remain.
Developed countries will be under increasing pressure to deliver on their financial promises and provide more predictable and transparent frameworks. COP29 is expected to further discuss innovative financial instruments, such as climate-resilient debt clauses, and explore additional ways to support vulnerable countries in the face of increasing climate change.
COP29 has the potential for countries to make binding commitments for long-term finance, closing the current gap between pledges and real resources on the ground.
Strengthening the Just Transition agenda
While COP28 laid the groundwork for “Just Transition”, it has been criticised for not going far enough in addressing how economic and social justice will be integrated into all climate change policies. As the effects of climate change fall disproportionally on lower-income communities and developing countries, COP29 is expected to provide a more comprehensive road map to ensure that the transition to cleaner economies leaves no one behind. The Just Transition is expected to be featured prominently in financial discussions, highlighting the need to distribute funds equitably to support local communities and help developing countries become resilient. By setting standards for fair labour practices, community consultation and protection of frontline communities, COP29 offers a critical opportunity to embed human rights considerations into the climate finance framework.
Carbon market rules
It became clear at COP28 that the international community is becoming increasingly aware of the role that carbon markets can play in reducing emissions. However, there are still considerable doubts as to whether they can function properly per Article 6. At COP29, stakeholders will be in search of clear and enforceable rules that can build confidence in carbon trading as an effective tool for emissions reduction. The lack of consensus on high-integrity carbon markets has hampered progress in this area, these challenges must be addresses at COP29 through the development of transparent, verifiable standards that allow countries to reliably trade carbon credits. A high-integrity market framework could transform carbon pricing and compliance systems, making it one of COP29's most anticipated policy outcomes.
Building a global consensus on health and trade
COP28, marked by the UAE Climate and Health Declaration, hosted the first-ever Health Day and elevated health as a climate priority, recognising the serious public health risks posed by climate change. Financing health adaptation, especially in vulnerable regions, and decarbonising health systems was among the commitments made at COP28. Building on these outcomes, COP29 is expected to prioritise the implementation of these commitments through the integration of health into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), support for climate-resilient health infrastructure, and the establishment of standardised emissions reduction targets in the health sector. The focus will be on creating robust, sustainable health systems that protect vulnerable populations, signaling a global shift towards putting health at the heart of climate action.
Furthermore, with a focus on aligning global trading systems with climate goals, COP28’s commitments on trade included promoting sustainable supply chains, reducing carbon emissions from international shipping and supporting trade policies that promote green technologies and renewable energy. It was expected that financial mechanisms would be established to support low-carbon trade practices, particularly for developing countries transitioning to greener economies. COP29 is likely to build on these commitments with the aim of implementing sustainable trade policies, harmonizing carbon standards across borders and strengthening the role of trade in driving the green transition.
Conclusion
As the world looks ahead to COP29, the pressure on decision-makers to translate the ambitious commitments of previous COPs into concrete results has never been greater. Azerbaijan's COP29 promises a focused agenda on climate finance, accountability and policy coherence across energy, nature and just transition priorities. The summit will serve as a critical juncture to measure the real impact of climate action and to address the deep-seated inequalities that exacerbate vulnerability to climate change.
The outcome of COP29 could very well determine the trajectory of international climate cooperation and steer the global community towards a future that balances economic and environmental needs, while putting vulnerable communities at the center of efforts to build climate resilience. The hope remains that Baku will go beyond echoing calls for climate action and lay the foundations for a sustainable, inclusive future.
